UK ad spend will grow in 2023, but eroded by inflation

The authoritative Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report predicts the UK advertising market will grow by 3.8 per cent in 2023 to reach £36.1bn. However, inflation means this figure would amount to a forecast decline of 3 per cent in real terms.

Data for the quarter between July and September 2022 estimates that UK advertising spend rose by 4.3 per cent, the ninth consecutive quarter of growth and more evidence of the UK's rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, forecasts for the coming year show reduced growth expectations for almost all sectors of advertising in line with pressures felt by all parts of the economy.

The quarterly IPA Bellwether survey of marketing sentiment reported that marketing budget growth across the final three months of 2022, though overshadowed by fears about the UK's near recessionary economy.

Around one-fifth of survey respondents to the IPA Bellwether upwardly revised their total marketing spending in the fourth quarter (20.2 per cent), while 18 per cent registered budget cuts. Overall, the net balance recorded in positive territory for the seventh successive quarter (+2.2 per cent) and marked the longest uninterrupted sequence of growth for four years.

However, business sentiment remained inside pessimistic territory during the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting downbeat expectations for the year ahead as a persistence of high inflation, increased interest rates and low consumer confidence have raised the prospect of a UK recession.

Read more about the AA/WARC forecast or IPA Bellwether

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